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Showing posts from September, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Futures Seasonality

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Profit taking Friday

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This is good-one: “Gold will plummet to $750… real-estate will drop another 30%... and the DOW will plunge to 6,000.”

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Dear Reader, 
If you watch CNBC, it’s likely you’ve seen this man.  
He’s the economist who recently said, “Gold will plummet to $750… real-estate will drop another 30%... andthe DOW will plunge to 6,000.”  
He even had the audacity to tell CNBC contributor Ron Insana, “You and Robert Malthus don’t know what you’re talking about!” 
When I heard this, I wondered, “Who the heck does this guy think he is?” 
Then I took a look at his track record...  
Harry Dent has predicted nearly every major economic trend over the past 30 years…including the 1991 recession, Japan’s lost decade, the 2001 tech crash, the bull market and housing boom of the last decade and, most recently, the credit and housing bubble.
And I’m thrilled he’s letting us share his latest research with Stocks & Commodities readers. I must warn you, I was shocked when I heard what he's forecasting for the coming months.
The scary thing is, much of what he predicts is already starting to happen.
But you can see it for yourself 

Bank of England

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Undeniable facts

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S&P 500 Seasonality

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What is it - $SPY

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Futures momentum

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FED, ECB, BOJ

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The Big Picture ... Market PerspectivesBy Bryan Rich September 8, 2016, 2:00pm ESTThe ECB met this morning.  As expected Draghi and company sat tight.  The big events of the month are in two weeks, when the Fed and BOJ decide on rates/monetary policy.

Today let's take a look at the total assets that have been hoovered up by the world's biggest central banks, an activity that the central banks thought would lead to growth, and the gold-bugs thought would lead to hyper-inflation.  They've both been underwhelmed.   

The Fed's balance sheet has grown to almost $4.5 trillion ...



The ECB's balance sheet is at $3.7 trillion and growing ...



The BOJ's has rocketed to $4.4 trillion and growing ...



And China, the stealth QE'er has ballooned to $5.1 trillion ...



That's nearly $18 trillion of assets on the balance sheet of the world's top central banks.  That means much of that $18 trillion of capital has been injected into the system.  It was widely believed that thi…

European 10-year bond yields up after #ECB decision

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Interest rates by country

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Current inflation by country / region (CPI)

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Hedge funds flee tumbling cattle market - but not fast enough

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Big Picture ... Market Perspectives 9/1/16

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The Big Picture ... Market PerspectivesBy Bryan Rich September 1, 2016, 2:00pm ESTLast month, this time, the famed oil trader Andy Hall (and oil bull) was dealing with a sub $40 oil market again.  And he was again explaining losses to investors in his multi-billion hedge fund.

A guy that has made a career, and hundreds of millions of dollar in personal wealth, picking tops and bottoms in oil, had had entered 2016 coming off his worst year ever.  And 2016 started even worse.  

I've talked about the oil price bust extensively, at the depths of the decline in January and February.  While most were glorifying the benefits of a few extra bucks on the pockets of consumers from low gas prices, we walked through the ugly outcome of persistently low oil prices.  It would be another global financial crisis, as failing energy companies and defaulting oil producing countries would lead to crush banks and the dominos would fall from there.  Unfortunately, the central banks don't have the amm…

Coffee futures staged a strong start to September

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Coffee futures jump, as export tumble fuels supply fears Coffee futures staged a strong start to September, attempting in New York to record their second highest close in more than a year, as data showing a slump in world exports crystallised concerns of tighter supplies. Arabica coffee futures for December stood up 3.8% at 153.65 cents a pound in late deals in New York, a level which, if held to the close, would represent the strong finish for the contract, bar one, since May last year. In London, the best-traded November robusta coffee futures contract stood 1.4% higher at $1,854 in late deals. 'Bullish as anything' www.agrimoney.com